Kurdî News Agency

What happened in global markets yesterday? Yesterday, US markets saw a bearish trend as the unexpectedly strong JOLTS data increased uncertainty about the tightening path. On the macro data front, the JOLTS job openings data released yesterday showed an increase of 690,000 to 9.61 million in August compared to the previous month. Market expectations had predicted open job positions to be at 8.80 million during this period. In July, the number of open job positions was 8.92 million. Among the sectors where open job positions increased during this period were professional and commercial services, finance and insurance, state and local government education, non-durable goods manufacturing, and federal government. Hiring also increased by 35,000 to 5.86 million in August. The number of people leaving their jobs, including resignations and layoffs, increased by 38,000 to 5.68 million during the same period. The data strengthened expectations that the US economy's labor market remains robust, reinforcing expectations that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is not yet complete. The 2-year treasury yield rose to 5.15%, while the 10-year treasury yield ended the week at 4.84%, the highest level since 2007. The S&P 500 index closed with a 1.37% decline at 4,229.45 points, the Nasdaq index lost 1.87% to 13,059.47 points, and the Dow Jones index closed with a 1.29% decline at 33,002.38 points.

What do we expect today? This morning, Asian markets also showed a bearish trend. Especially, the selling trend prominent in US treasuries affecting bond yields and the need for intervention in the foreign exchange market are factors influencing market movements. In this context, the MSCI Asia Index extended its decline for the third day this morning, losing 10% compared to the peak reached in July. US futures are also showing a sideways trend. Today in the US, weekly mortgage applications, ADP private sector employment change, factory orders, and ISM service PMI data will be monitored. There are no market expectations for the weekly mortgage applications data for the week ending September 29. However, it should be remembered that data for the week ending September 22 recorded a 1.3% decline on a weekly basis. Private sector employment change for September is expected to be 150,000. Market expectations for factory orders in August are for a monthly increase of 0.4%. For the ISM service PMI in September, a slight decrease of 1 point to 53.5 points is expected. There are market expectations for sub-indices. It should be remembered that in August, prices increased by 2.1 points to 58.9. Employment increased by 4 points to 54.7. New orders also increased by 2.5 points to 57.5. On the Eurozone front, retail sales and producer price index data will be watched. Retail sales for August are expected to have decreased by 0.5% on a monthly and 1% on a yearly basis. The producer price index is expected to increase by 0.6% on a monthly basis, while it is expected to decline by 11.6% on a yearly basis.

What's next on the agenda? Tomorrow, the US will also monitor the trade balance and weekly jobless claims data. The trade balance for August is expected to show a deficit of $59.9 billion. Market expectations for data for the week ending September 30 are 210,000. It is expected that the ongoing claims data for the week ending September 23 will slightly increase to 1.67 million. In Asia, Japan will also monitor real earnings, wage increases, and household spending data. Real earnings for August are expected to decrease by 2.1% on a yearly basis, while wage increases are expected to be 1.5%. Household spending is expected to decrease by 3.9%. On Friday, the US will also monitor non-farm payrolls data. Non-farm payrolls for September are expected to increase by 170,000. The unemployment rate is expected to slightly decrease from 3.8% to 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% on a monthly and 4.3% on a yearly basis. Next Monday, NFIB small business optimism data will also be monitored. It should be remembered that the data for August decreased by 0.6 points to 91.3. On Tuesday, in addition to the producer price index data, the FOMC meeting minutes will be monitored. For the producer price index, it is expected that both the headline and core rates will increase by 0.3% and 0.2% on a monthly basis, respectively. There are no market expectations for the annual rate. However, it should be remembered that the August data showed an annual increase of 1.6% for the headline rate and 2.2% for the core rate.

Source: Halk Investment